Fears of a new Black Swan in Singapore General Election 2011

In my previous post, I wrote about fears of a black swan event in the coming election. It is PAP losing power to an opposition which is still not ready to take over the reins. Admittedly, those fears were borne out of selfish reasons. I was afraid of losing lots of money from the adverse market reaction if PAP was thrown out of power on 7 May 2011.

Now, I have fears of a new black swan. It is the opposition losing all its seats in parliament.

It is amazing that the opposition has attracted high-quality candidates despite offering little or no money and plenty of risks. Look at what happened to some of the past opposition candidates and it is hard not to be fearful if you are an opposition candidate. By joining opposition, they have more to lose than gain. Otherwise, why do so many opposition candidates face family opposition to join the opposition?

If these people have the courage to take on the risks and make the sacrifices to stand up for the country for their beliefs, what kind of message are Singaporeans sending if they lose all seats in parliament this time? Will any more credible opposition candidates dare to stand up for us the next time?

It is not healthy for any entity, whether it is a business or government, to be a total monopoly. Freedom from competition will lead to complacency. Some competition will keep them on their toes and open their ears to the customers.

I hope none of the black swans feared will materialize. A middle ground will be the optimum outcome.